By Johnathan Mun
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Additional resources for Advanced Analytical Models
The calculation for revenue is simply price multiplied by quantity. 9) between price and quantity. 17. 0717 for the negative correlation model. , additions and multiplications), negative correlations tend to reduce the average spread of the distribution and create a tighter and more concentrated forecast distribution as compared to positive correlations with larger average spreads. However, the mean remains relatively stable. This implies that correlations do little to change the expected value of projects but can reduce or increase a project’s risk.
The opposite is true for price and quantity of products A to C (their green or lighter bars are on the right side of the chart). Notes Remember that tornado analysis is a static sensitivity analysis applied on each input variable in the model––that is, each variable is perturbed individually, and the resulting effects are tabulated. This makes tornado analysis a key component to execute before running a simulation. Capturing and identifying the most important impact drivers in the model is one of the very first steps in risk analysis.
Correlations. Pairwise correlations can be assigned to input assumptions here. If assumptions are required, remember to check the Turn on Correlations preference by clicking on Risk Simulator | Edit Simulation Profile. See the discussion on correlations later in this chapter for more details about assigning correlations and the effects correlations will have on a model. Short Descriptions. Short descriptions exist for each of the distributions in the gallery. The short descriptions explain when a certain distribution is used as well as the input parameter requirements.